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Economic Survey dishing out dubious cotton production data

The Economic Survey 2003-04 which was placed before the members of Parliament on July 2, 2004 carries certain cotton production statistics (page 154) which are apparently dubious. It looks surprising that authors have not bothered to cross check these figures. This is bound to baffle everyone who takes it for granted that every bit of information carried by the Economic Survey is bound to be authentic. When, however, any bit of information presented by it is questionable, it is bound to affect credibility of this important official document. Authors of this publication cannot hide themselves behind an excuse that they received such information from the Union ministry of agriculture and presumed it to be correct and reliable.

The Economic Survey tells us on July 7, 2004 that cotton production in the country is expected to be of the order of 135 lakh bales this year, when actual physical arrivals by the end of June 2004 have already crossed that level and some more arrivals are expected before the end of the season on September 30, 2004. Actual crop size of any agriculture commodity cannot be lower than its physical arrivals.

While addresing the annual general meeting of the East India Cotton Association on July 15, 2004, its President K F Jhunjhunwala stated that market arrivals of cotton had already crossed 168 lakh bales.

When actual arrivals of cotton had already 168 lakh bales, authors of the Economic Survey cannot rationally argue that the crop will still be around 135 lakh bales, unless they are in a position to prove that figures of actual receipts of cotton given out by the EICA president were erroneous. As is well known, EICA gets such information mostly from the ginning and pressing factories in the country apart from its own sources. Had authors of the Economic Survey tried to get such information either from them or if they had at least contacted the state-owned Cotton Corporation of India, they could have been able to correct the information received by them from the agriculture ministry. It is difficult to say as to what prevented them from taking such a course before including a cotton corp statistics in such an official publication

That the cotton production estimates given out by the agriculture ministry are mostly wide of the mark, is known almost to every one except perhaps to authors of the Economic Survey. For instance, well known global agencies like the International Cotton Advisory Committee and the US Department of Agriculture which keep a close eye on production, movement and consumption of cotton through out the world spurn the statistics of our agriculture ministry, in this regard. However, authors of the Economic Survey seem to swear by the figures given out by the agriculture ministry.

Factors which make such figures of the agriculture ministry unreliable are not far to seek. The method for estimating the cotton crop by the officials, is actually being applied in an inefficient manner. Particularly, in rainfed cotton growing areas, there are very often more cotton pickings than the usual three or four. If these are ignored there is bound to be an erroneous estimate. Secondly, after giving out its crop estimate, the agriculture ministry does not care to look at actual arrivals either during the season, or even at the end of it. If for any reason the agriculture ministry is not inclined to undertake such an exercise, there is no reason why authors of the Economic Survey should refrain from doing so.

If one compares figures of cotton production in the country in earlier years as given out by the Economic Survey, with actual production in those years as reported by the Cotton Corporation of India in its Indian Cotton: A Profile 2003-04, one may easily find that the information given out by the Economic Survey is wide of the mark and totally unreliable.

Not only cotton production figures for each of these years given out by the Economic Survey are significantly lower than those of the actual production given out by the Cotton Corporation of India, but they also fail to match with even figures of cotton consumption in the country.

- M D Dewani