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Ongoing global fight between cotton and manmade fibres

M D Dewani

Even as the global demand for cotton continues to grow, that for manmade fibres (MMFs) is moving up at a much faster pace. If one goes by the forecast made by Mr Peter Driscoll, managing director, PCI Fibres, the consumer demand for MMF in the next five years will be double that for cotton. In absolute terms, while the demand for MMFs is expected to reach 47.4 million tonnes by 2009 that for cotton may be just around 23.4 million tonnes by that time. This may imply that cotton is fighting a losing battle against the invasion of its territory by MMFs. Two factors seem to be mainly responsible for this situation. One with the help of research it has been possible to introduce in MMFs certain qualities such as easy care, durability etc, which have not been possible in cotton. Furthermore, well planned publicity campaign by their producers have also helped MMFs in achieving a much faster growth than cotton which is produced mostly by poor farmers who cannot plan or implement such propaganda highlighting the benefits that cotton can only offer. Thus cotton is being left far behind MMFs in the race for dominance in the field of textile fibres.

According to Mr Driscoll, cotton demand growth has been modest around 2.4 per cent at 21.2 million tonnes in 2003 (which comes to 3.4 kg per capita). The demand for this natural fibre was estimated to grow at the rate of 2.4 per cent in 2004 and just at 1.3 per cent in 2005. This indicates a possible slowdown in demand growth for cotton.

On the other hand, the demand for MMFs grew in 2003 by 4.8 per cent to 36.2 million tonnes. This was expected to grow further by 5.00 per cent in 2004 and 5.2 per cent in 2005. MMFs are thus moving towards a volume what may be double that of cotton worldwide in the next five years. It is predicated that by 2009, the global consumer demand will be of the order of 47.4 million tonnes of MMFs as against 23.4 million tonnes of cotton.

Among manmade fibres, the star performers will be polyester. In 2003, it grew by 7.1 per cent to 22.6 million tonnes. On the other hand all synthetic taken together grew by just 0.4 per cent. Polyester was expected to maintain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent per annum in 2004 as well as 2005, while other synthetic fibres were expected to grow by 3 per cent in 2004 and 2 per cent in 2005. In terms of per capita consumption, polyester overtook cotton in 2002 (at 3.4 kg of polyester against 3.3 kg of cotton). Their different growth rates have an impact on their market share as well. Polyester already commands a market share of close to 40 per cent as compared with 36 per cent by cotton. Thus polyester has been able to beat not only cotton, but also all other MMFs.

Among MMFs, rayon was the first to arrive on the scene and it was picked up by the consumer as an alternative to costly silk. Several variants of rayon came up subsequently in the group of cellulosics but they could not beat rayon. When, however, nylon came up, it succeeded in beating rayon and held its sway as textile fibre for a considerable length of time. Polyester later successfully challenged the position of nylon and reigns supreme among textile fibres today. Its dominance among textile fibres is expected to continue until some new fibre is developed. However, no such development is seen even on the horizon at present.

Countrywise, China is emerging as a dominant producer of textiles and apparels in the world. Even there polyester has been marching at a faster rate than cotton. For instance, China’s domestic market grew only by 1.4 per cent in 2003. However, MMFs grew there by nearly 11 per cent. Cotton apparently declined. However, there was recovery for cotton in 2004 when MMFs are expected to slow down a little to about 7 per cent. In the mid term (perhaps by 2008), China perhaps witness a cyclical slowdown in its domestic market.

The final demand for MMFs at the consumer level during the 1995-2005 period showed a growth rate of 3.5 per cent per annum, while in China it was growing at the rate of 10 per cent per annum. Taking these together, one may conclude that the world growth in MMFs is moving at the rate of 5 per cent per annum.

In terms of volume, China already represents more than a quarter of the global demand for MMFs. This is projected to reach 33 per cent in 2014. While China will be the leading consumer of MMFs, it remains the leading producer of textiles and apparels (in all firbes) for the rest of the world. Its textiles and apparel exports have been moving up from just about three million tonnes in 1995. It is predicted that this will reach 11.5 million tonnes in 2005, indicating a growth rate of 14 per cent per annum. While there was hardly any growth between 1995 and 1999, the annual growth rate was around 20 per cent for the 2000-2005 period. It may be worth noting that apparels accounts for 58 per cent of its total exports of textiles and apparels taken together. In other words finished textiles (apparels) remain a very important part of China’s textile activity.